By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins
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The San Francisco 49ers aim to keep their postseason plans on course when they head east to face the Tennessee Titans in an important Week 16 Thursday Night Football showdown for both sides. The Niners (8-6) have a spot in the NFC Playoffs if the season ended today, but it doesn’t and a loss here gives hope to four other teams close behind in the standings.
The Titans (9-5) lead the AFC South and are just one game behind the Chiefs for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Tennessee owns a tiebreaker over Kansas City due to a head-to-head win.
Sportsbooks opened at PK, but had slid dramatically to San Francisco -3.5 by Monday at most of the leading betting sites and betting apps.
Check out the latest 49ers vs Titans odds, betting lines, injury report and more.
George Kittle vs. Titans LBs: Kittle has been an unstoppable force the last three games. Tennessee ranks fourth in fewest yards and TDs allowed to tight ends.
Deebo Samuel vs. Everyone: Samuel leads San Francisco in receiving, but since getting carries in the backfield the Niners haven’t lost. It’s 5-0 when Deebo gets five carries. Tennessee ranks No. 2 vs. the run.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Niners DBs: The Niners have held eight of the last 11 opposing QBs to under 250 yards. Tannehill has passed for over 220 yards just once in the past six weeks.
RELATED: NFL Week 16 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games
.857: The win percentage of the Titans when A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both suit up. They’ve won five of six, but are 3-4 when they don’t. Jones is not expected to play Thursday.
13: Turnovers in the last four games by the Titans, and in one of those four they didn’t have any. The ball-hawking Niners defense has forced two-plus turnovers in five of the last six games.
141.7: Yards per game average for 49ers TE George Kittle over the last three games.
189.6: The yards per game allowed to receivers by the Titans. Only the Vikings have allowed more.
191: Yards per game rushing by the Titans the last three weeks, this after averaging only 79.3 ypg the first three games without Derrick Henry.
Thursday begins a warming trend in Nashville, with highs in the upper 50s and sunny skies during the day. Not much is expected to change at night, with temps likely in the lower 40s. Overcast clouds may fill the sky over Nissan Stadium for the second half, but no rain is coming.
Odds: +150 at BetMGM
Tannehill has tossed more than two TDs just twice all season, and he has just four TDs the last six games. But by now Tannehill must perform better for the offense to score points. A.J. Brown returns to the lineup and the Niners’ run defense is stronger than its pass unit.
Odds: +110 at DraftKings
Bullock has missed two XPs and two FGs over the last four games alone. That said, only twice all season has he had fewer than two extra point attempts. We’ll put our faith in a kicker that missed just one XP in each of the last two seasons.
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Samuel has become more of a rusher than a receiver lately. The last four games he has 28 rushes and only 12 receptions. But he had four catches for 60 yards last week and Tennessee’s defense, while it ranks No. 2 vs. the run, is No. 23 vs. the pass.
RELATED: NFL Week 16 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game
The 49ers are -180 on the moneyline, meaning a $180 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the host Titans are at +150 ($100 wins $150 in profit).
The Niners are certainly the hotter team, winners of five of six including nice victories over the Rams, Vikings and Bengals. The Titans? They lead the AFC South but have dropped three of four, the only win coming against the downtrodden Jaguars.
Tennessee’s overall statistics are misleading; the offense isn’t the same without Derrick Henry. The same can be said for the Niners, but in the opposite way. If you’re going to find value in the moneyline, it’s with the road favorite here.
When it comes to NFL spreads the 49ers are -3.5 here. That may be surprising to some, given the Titans are at home and have the better record.
The matchups, however, favor San Francisco. When it comes to the pass game, Jimmy Garoppolo has weapons and is playing at a higher level than Ryan Tannehill. It’s tough to run on the Titans, but Tennessee’s own rushing woes cancel out any advantage.
We’re not touching either side, those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider the 49ers, especially if you can get the spread down to -3.
The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 44.5 points, up a half-point since opening at 44. To be sure, it’s the defense that has led the charge to postseason-contender status for each side. At the same time, Tennessee’s offense has tanked, failing to get over 20 points in the last month.
Still, this number seems low. The Titans can get to 17-23 points here, and San Francisco has found ways to score even when it’s not piling up yards. In fact, the Niners have been held to 335 or fewer yards five times but scored at least 28 points in three of those games (and allowed 30-plus in two of them). Under has been profitable on Thursdays but the Over looks like the better side for your NFL betting Week 16 TNF ticket.
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