Johnny Gaudreau should be no stranger to questions around his future in Calgary.
There’s been plenty of trade speculation — or at the very least calls to have him moved — over the years. Now, with his six-year deal signed in 2016 expiring on July 13, the questions have become: Will he stay in Calgary or will he go when free agency opens in four weeks’ time?
If you’re a regular reader here, you’d know that I’ve been fairly optimistic about Gaudreau remaining a member of the Flames. I believe him when he says he loves the city. But I also believe Gaudreau when he says he’ll take his time and make the best decision for himself and his family.
Projecting what might happen and what Gaudreau might cost is no easy task.
There are no perfect contract comparables due to Gaudreau’s size, playmaking and total value making him “a bit of a unicorn,” as our Dom Luszczyszyn wrote in his UFA board — where Gaudreau ranked No. 1. There also aren’t many similar statistical profiles.
The first stop toward upgrading lineups for next season comes via free agency, and this year looks to feature one of the deepest crops of NHL free agents available in recent memory.@domluszczyszyn assesses and ranks the top 5⃣0⃣ NHL UFAs this offseason: https://t.co/GuWfeAhU9U pic.twitter.com/uCZ1zRZ5r9
— The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) June 9, 2022
In 602 NHL games, Gaudreau has scored 609 points. He’s 28 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent. Using CapFriendly’s custom comparable tool, with those data points, the best matches aren’t great, with the No. 1 match around 79 percent.
That would be Steven Stamkos’ eight-year deal with an $8.5 million AAV signed in 2016. Next is Patrick Kane’s $10.5 million extension signed in 2014 that’s set to expire in 2023. Rounding out the top three is Taylor Hall’s one-year, $8 million deal signed with Buffalo in 2020. Except for the latter, these “best” comparables are outdated — signed at a time when the salary cap was rising every year, among other differentiation points — more on those later.
According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projection tool, Gaudreau could be in line for a cap hit around $11 million on a seven-year deal. The other options are as follows:
If Gaudreau signed for close to the projection with the highest probability — the seven-year contract listed above — he’d have a few comparables around the league. The highest match percentage, via CapFriendly, would be Artemi Panarin’s seven-year deal signed with the New York Rangers in 2019 at $11.6 million AAV. Could Gaudreau command as much as $11.6 million? Only six players are slated to make $11 million or more next season.
According to Dom’s GSVA model, Gaudreau’s market value is currently $15.1 million after a season where he was worth an elite 6.0 wins over 82 games — an average value of $13.8 million over the next seven seasons.
Now, players don’t typically make their market value – there’s a salary cap after all. But these figures do show us that a deal in the $9.5-$11 million range shouldn’t be too outrageous and be one that Gaudreau lives up to, especially as the salary cap starts to increase more in the later years of the deal.
Dom’s model projects Gaudreau, next season, to be a 90-point player who can continue drive play at both ends of the ice at five-on-five. At 4.3 projected wins, he’s expected to be one of the most valuable players in the league next season.
Those kinds of talents aren’t easy to find, which is what makes his situation so intriguing. Players like Johnny Gaudreau don’t typically make it to — or close to — the open market.
So, instead of continuing to go over contract details that are difficult to predict, let’s take a look at a few instances of elite players getting close to UFA status to see what we can learn about what might happen with Gaudreau — and how much he might cost the Flames or someone else.
The four examples — and sure there are more — are listed in order of signing date.
Eight-year deal, at $10.5 million AAV signed July 9, 2014 with same team (Blackhawks)
Kane’s contract isn’t a great measuring stick to look at due to how long ago it was signed — almost eight years ago now — and the very few similarities between the two players.
Gaudreau and Kane are two skilled, playmaking wingers. And, as mentioned, they share a close statistical profile. At 28 years old, Gaudreau has been a point-per-game player in his career. While Kane, who was 26 when he signed his deal and 27 when it kicked in, was just under that with 493 points in 515 games.
That’s where the similarities end, despite the fact that Kane’s name tends to come up as a comparable. And the key difference is a big one: Kane signed his deal with Chicago one year before his contract was set to expire at the end of the 2014-15 season, never getting him close to the free-agent market. The deal, which was identical to the one Jonathan Toews signed on the same day, made the duo the first players to surpass $10 million in the cap era.
Had Gaudreau re-upped in Calgary last summer — like he indicated he wanted to — then maybe this is a comparable that works. But it doesn’t. Not to mention, Kane was (and still is) a much more accomplished player. He had already won two Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe Trophy before signing his big-ticket deal. Kane’s cap hit was 15.22 percent of the cap when it was signed, which would be around $12.6 million today. Only Connor McDavid ($12.5 million) is making that much money next year, and I doubt any team could go quite that high.
Eight-year deal, at $8.5 million AAV signed June 29, 2016 with same team (Lightning)
Stamkos is the best comparable to Gaudreau in terms of age and NHL production leading up to a contract year. He was 26 years old when he signed, but still close to 600 games played (569) like Gaudreau, and a near point-per-game player (562). Stamkos has spent some time over the years on the wing in Tampa Bay but is mostly viewed as a centre, a position often valued more than wingers.
Coming off a five-year deal worth $7.5 million, Stamkos would be an unrestricted free agent in 2016 and made it to the free-agent negotiating period without a new deal. At the time, Stamkos was free to meet with teams to discuss potential deals. A total of 10 to 12 teams expressed interest, according to his agent Don Meehan, including a meeting with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Stamkos would have been the highest-profile player to hit the free-agent market in several years. However, two days before he officially became a UFA, Stamkos signed with the Lightning.
Some viewed his deal as leaving money on the table because he was expected to get big offers from teams like Detroit or Toronto, but digging into state tax showed he would actually make more in Florida.
Gaudreau is just under four weeks from free agency, so we aren’t at the panic stage yet. But, Stamkos is an example of why you can still hold out hope should Gaudreau get to say, July 10 without a new deal in Calgary.
Perhaps he takes a look at what’s out there — either in free agency, or if the Flames give him permission to check out the market early — and not like what he sees. At the time, Stamkos insisted that he wanted to stay in Tampa Bay to win the Stanley Cup — they had made it to the Final in 2015. Gaudreau had similar messaging on exit meeting day.
This is probably the path the Flames, and fans, would be hoping for, albeit maybe not so close to free-agency day. In fact, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun has said the Flames won’t want to get that close to July 13. They’ll need to know if they need to pivot away from their star winger sooner rather than later.
When he signed in Tampa Bay, Stamkos took up 11.6 percent of the cap. Today, that would be around $9.9 million. That’s lower than Evolving Hockey’s projection and Dom’s market value for Gaudreau.
Gaudreau is a highly-skilled and valuable player right now. However, Stamkos was younger (26) when he signed, had scored 40 goals four times, won the NHL’s goal scoring title twice and hit 60 goals in 2011-12. He was also captain of the Lightning at that point, too.
Could an eight-year deal with a $10 million AAV — maybe with the promise of captaincy to add to his legacy — get the job done with Gaudreau?
Seven-year deal, at $11 million AAV, signed on July 1, 2018 with different team (Maple Leafs)
If Stamkos is the hopeful view of the situation, John Tavares would be the pessimistic view.
Not that anyone’s really forgotten, certainly not on Long Island, but Tavares left the New York Islanders to sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs after meetings with six teams in the days leading up to free agency, including a meeting with the Islanders to contemplate staying with the team that drafted him in 2009. About an hour into free agency day, in 2018, came the infamous tweet from Tavares that he had signed with his hometown team.
What’s, potentially, troubling is the similar messaging from both Gaudreau and Tavares the summer ahead of their free agencies.
Two days after the Islanders’ season ended in 2018, Tavares said: “I’ve loved it here. The people have really embraced me, the team, the organization. It’s been first-class since I’ve gotten here. There’s obviously some great talent and some great things ahead. Definitely a lot of positives. I’ll obviously have to take some time and figure out what I want to do and go from there.”
Last month Gaudreau said: “I probably won’t think about it for a couple days here. Obviously, it’s still fresh that we lost. I don’t know anything other than Calgary, you know? In September, I fly to Calgary, play hockey. And then at the end of the season, I go home and spend time with family. It’s all I’ve known for the past 11 years and it’s kind of a big decision here and I’m just going to try to figure out what’s best for me first and my family and go from there. … But Calgary is a special place for me and I do really, really love it here.”
It’s probably a little close for comfort for Flames fans. Naturally, this would be the worst-case scenario for Calgary — losing Gaudreau for nothing other than some cap space. And, like Tavares, his hometown team would be an obvious draw.
Gaudreau grew up in South Jersey. His dad, Guy, has been an important figure in Philadelphia-area youth hockey for years. In 2017 he told a local radio station it would be “sweet” to play in the Philly area. His friend and teammate from Boston College, Kevin Hayes, is signed with the Flyers for four more years. The Flyers need a drawing card and an injection of talent. However, should Gaudreau command $10 million or even $11.4 million — which is around the 13.8 percent of the cap Tavares signed for — Philadelphia will have a ton of work to do, given they currently have $5 million in cap space.
It’s worth noting that Tavares isn’t a perfect comparable because he’s a centre. But he was around the same age (27) and tallied 621 points in 669 games before signing in Toronto. At the time, many said he was the biggest free agent to hit the market in the cap era.
Not everyday you can live a childhood dream pic.twitter.com/YUTKdfMALl
— John Tavares (@91Tavares) July 1, 2018
Seven-year deal, at $11.6 million AAV signed on July 1, 2019 with different team (Rangers)
Panarin, often cited as the easiest contract comparable, is intriguing. Or troubling. It depends how you view the situation, really.
Like Gaudreau, he’s a dynamic, highly-skilled winger. He hit UFA status at 27 years old, just one year off Gaudreau. But there’s a lot of differences here.
For one, at the time of his signing in New York, Panarin had only played 322 NHL games (with 320 points) after signing a two-year entry-level contract with Chicago out of the KHL in 2015. He was traded to Columbus before the 2017-18 season, and made it publicly known that he wanted to test free agency before the 2019 deadline. The Blue Jackets did not trade him, despite that fact, and Panarin left in the summer — part of an exodus out of Columbus that also included Matt Duchene and Sergei Bobrovsky.
The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reported on the morning of July 1, 2019 that Columbus had made a late offer for $96 million over eight seasons ($12 million per year). It was the largest contract offer in Blue Jackets history, but it wasn’t enough to keep Panarin in Columbus. After he signed with the Rangers, it became clear that Panarin had long desired to be in a big market, like New York, and specifically play for the Rangers.
Through an interpreter, Panarin said he “dreamt of playing for the Rangers,” adding “my heart has been here.”
Is this something we could see in Calgary? A late franchise-defining offer to keep Gaudreau with the Flames, but he leaves some money on the table to go where he’s always wanted?
Of course, Panarin is different from Gaudreau’s. The latter was never traded, has more of an NHL sample size, and wanted to sign in Calgary last summer. Still, this is perhaps the worst-case scenario for the Flames — more than Tavares — due to the fear of Gaudreau leaving but also the potential cost to make the outcome different in this scenario versus Panarin’s.
Panarin is the second-highest paid player in the NHL right now. His contract, at the time, was worth 14.3 percent of the cap. That would be $11.8 million under an $82.5 million ceiling.
Gaudreau was better than Panarin this season. Panarin has had four seasons with more than 80 points, and three 30-goal seasons. Gaudreau’s career-high (115) is better than Panarin’s (96), but he also had two down seasons between 2019-20 and 2020-21 that had many question if Gaudreau could still be an elite player (hint: He can, and he is). According to GSVA, Gaudreau is projected to be even more valuable than Panarin was at the time (3.5 projected wins).
Will the Flames need to offer $11 million — as Evolving-Hockey suggested — to Gaudreau to make him stay? Will it be more? Is there somewhere Gaudreau has always wanted to go?
Other than saying he loves Calgary and that it would be “sweet” to play in Philadelphia there has been no public proclamation of his desired location. Though, Panarin didn’t tell media he wanted to sign in New York until the deal was done.
Outside of Gaudreau signing in the next week or so, the Flames’ best-case scenario is Gaudreau looking at the market and staying put in Calgary — like Stamkos in Tampa Bay. It’s clear that the Flames will need to cough up a lot of money to make that happen. After this exercise, it’s likely $9.5 million is a starting point to a discussion and then the number should go up.
Anything other than those two scenarios — like how Panarin or Tavares played out— would be a massive disappointment for fans, and a big asset management mistake.
(Top photo of Johnny Gaudreau: Sergei Belski / USA Today)
