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A whopper of a June jobs report landed in Wall Street's lap Friday morning, and it kept investors and traders guessing all session.
Anyone looking to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest employment situation for signs of a coming recession walked away mighty disappointed. The U.S. added 372,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, shattering consensus forecasts for 265,000. The unemployment rate held firm at 3.6% for the fourth consecutive month. And aggregate hours worked by private workers was up another 2.6% annualized during 2022's second quarter, following 3.4% annualized growth in Q1.
"You just don't see that in a recession," says Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Indeed, Adams believes between that and average monthly payroll job growth of 457,000 during the first half of the year, "it would be no surprise to see the first quarter's contraction in GDP revised to growth as statistical agencies get more complete information to measure the economy; GDP is hard to measure in real time and subject to many revisions."
This good news for the U.S. economy got a more nuanced reaction from the stock market, as some experts think the Federal Reserve could continue an aggressive pace of interest-rate hikes if the economy has strength to bear them.
Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at wealth management firm Glenmede, says of the central bank's dual mandate of full employment and low inflation: "For the time being, [full employment] appears intact, affording the Fed the flexibility to tackle its price stability goal head-on. While next week's [consumer price index] print will be the next important indicator to watch, today's jobs report likely gives the Fed headway for another 75-basis-point rate hike later this month."
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Stocks swung between shallow losses and gains throughout the day before settling with mixed results. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.1% to 11,635) closed in the black for the fifth consecutive session. However, Friday marked the end of winning streaks for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2% to 31,338) and S&P 500 (down marginally to 3,899).
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Other news in the stock market today:
Coming up next week: the start of a pivotal second-quarter earnings season. The earnings calendar will kick off with reports from the likes of Delta Air Lines (DAL), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH). And despite Friday's encouraging employment news, a broader cadence of data pointing toward an eventual recession has some gloomy about the coming earnings season.
Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist for Ally Invest, isn't necessarily one of them.
"There are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic heading into what could be a volatile Q2 earnings season," she says. "Several companies have already cut profit outlooks while others have hinted at the broad economic backdrop being not so bad. With estimates having been reduced in some key sectors and stock prices down big from earlier this year, the bar might be low enough to spark a near-term rally."
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This is Senior Investing Editor Kyle Woodley, letting you know it's my final day with Kiplinger. I'm extremely grateful for getting to serve Kiplinger readers for the past few years, and I wish you both good health and good fortune.
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