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Motley Fool Issues Rare “All In” Buy Alert
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Economic concerns have plagued investors throughout the year, and the stock market has tumbled as a result. The S&P 500 has fallen 21% from its high, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 32%, putting both indexes in a bear market. But that chaos comes with a silver lining for patient investors.
Software giants Salesforce (CRM 2.05%) and Adobe (ADBE 2.21%) have seen their share prices plunge 48% and 54%, respectively. Neither stock has suffered a greater loss at any point in the past 10 years, meaning investors now have a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity.
Here’s what you should know.
Salesforce has been a pioneer from day one. It launched a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform in 1999, becoming the first company to adopt cloud computing on a large scale.
Today, its platform comprises productivity software for marketing, commerce, sales, and customer service, as well as tools for workflow automation, data analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI). Salesforce also offers several industry-specific CRM platforms, featuring tools tailored to end markets like consumer goods, financial services, and media. That go-to-market strategy reduces friction and accelerates time to value for customers.
Salesforce has turned its capacity for innovation into a powerful brand. It captured 24% market share in CRM software last year — more than the next four competitors combined — marking its ninth consecutive year as the industry leader.
Financially, revenue climbed 25% to $29.3 billion over the past year, though free cash flow (FCF) jumped just 4% to $5.7 billion, as operating expenses rose more quickly than revenue. That said, investors should expect FCF growth to accelerate in the future. Management says its GAAP operating margin will clock in 3.6% this year, up from 2.1% last year.
Looking ahead, investors have good reason to be bullish. Salesforce puts its total addressable market (TAM) at $290 billion in 2026, meaning it has only captured about 10% of its future TAM. Additionally, shares currently trade at 5.5 times sales, a bargain compared to the five-year average of 8.8 times sales. That’s why this growth stock is worth buying today.
Adobe specializes in digital media and digital experience software. Its digital media business includes Adobe Document Cloud, a suite of PDF and e-signature tools that help businesses replaced paper-based processes with digital documents. The digital media business also includes Adobe Creative Cloud, a collection of creativity software comprising industry-leading products for image and video editing, vector graphics, and cinematic special effects, among others.
Adobe supplements those solutions with its digital experience business. Adobe Experience Cloud is a suite of analytics, marketing, and commerce tools that help businesses turn customer data into personalized experiences. Earlier this year, research company Gartner recognized Adobe as a leader in digital experience platforms, citing a better ability to execute and a more complete vision than any other vendor.
Financially, Adobe missed revenue estimates in the most recent quarter, and its 2023 guidance fell short of expectations, due primarily to an estimated four-percentage-point headwind related to the strong dollar. On the bright side, unfavorable foreign exchange rates should normalize in time, and Adobe still turned in respectable results over the past year. Revenue rose 14% to $17.2 billion and FCF climbed 8% to $7.1 billion. That works out to an impressive FCF margin of 41%.
Looking to the future, Adobe puts its addressable market at $205 billion by 2024 — digital media represents $95 billion and digital experience represents $110 billion — and investors have good reason to be optimistic . Adobe is already a leader in several creativity categories, but the company is also gaining traction with newer products, like its Substance suite of 3D design applications. That is especially noteworthy because it positions Adobe to be a key player in the metaverse.
Additionally, Adobe recently announced plans to acquire design collaboration platform Figma. It will pay a hefty $20 billion in cash and stock, but Figma is growing like wildfire. The company is expected to add $200 million in new annualized recurring revenue (ARR) this year, surpassing $400 million in total ARR by the end of 2022. Additionally, average spend per Figma customers is growing faster than 50% per year, and Figma puts its addressable market at $16.5 billion by 2025.
With that in mind, shares of Adobe currently trade at 8.7 times sales, a big discount to the five-year average of 15.3 times sales. That creates a nice buying opportunity, and patient investors should seriously consider adding a few shares of this growth stock to their portfolio.
Trevor Jennewine has positions in Adobe Inc. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Adobe Inc. and Salesforce, Inc. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner and recommends the following options: long January 2024 $420 calls on Adobe Inc. and short January 2024 $430 calls on Adobe Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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