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International North-South Transport Corridor as well as the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor was important. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stressed that Russian participation in self- reliant India and ‘Make-in-India’, would build a more contemporary bilateral economic relationship. The totality of Jaishankar’s remarks conveys that there is no change in our longer-term strategy of continuing to strengthen wherever possible our economic and defence ties with Russia, notes Kanwal Sibal, a former India Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Russia.
External Affairs Minister’s Jaishankar’s visit to Moscow on November 7-8 for consultations with Foreign Minister Lavrov and a meeting of the Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) which he chairs from the Indian side have drawn considerable attention because of its timing. The IRIGC-TEC met at a time when Russia is under draconian sanctions by the West, and India and other countries are under pressure to reduce ties with Moscow has an obvious significance.
India is signaling that it is not deterred by these sanctions and pressures and will continue to nurture and expand its economic ties with Russia in pursuit of its national interest, and that it sees these ties independently of those with the West.
Jaishankar told his counterpart Deputy Prime Minister Manturov that he had brought a delegation of senior officials from the Ministries of Agriculture, Petroleum and Natural gas, Ports, Finance, Chemicals and Fertilizers as well as Commerce and Industry for substantive discussions to chart the future course of action, with the goal of realising the optimum potential of bilateral trade and economic relations – a target of $30 billion by 2025 – that will address the existing trade deficit and market access issues in the interest of long term stability.
While bilateral trade in 2022 had grown considerably, it had to be made more sustainable by addressing the issue of the trade imbalance and facilitating more Indian exports. While noting that our energy and fertilizer cooperation has been strengthening, Jaishankar hinted at some concern about the potential disruption of the pipeline of supplies in view of Russia’s pre-occupation with the military operations in Ukraine when he underlined that it was “essential that our time-tested defence relationship continues to perform smoothly”.
By stating that the global economy is simply too inter-dependent for a significant conflict anywhere not to have major consequences elsewhere, he noted the growing concerns about energy and food security and the very acute pain felt by the Global South.
India, therefore, strongly advocates a return to dialogue and diplomacy, he said, adding that in so far as specific initiatives pertaining to issues like food grains and fertilizer shipments were concerned, or any other problem for that matter, India will be as helpful as it can be, and that India will be supportive of any initiative that de-risks the global economy and stabilizes the global order at this stage.
This was by no means an offer to mediate in the ongoing conflict, as our press had speculated before his visit.
The US could begin a process of negotiations, especially as the conflict has now evolved into a proxy war by the West against Russia, with the US and the EU pumping in more and more arms into Ukraine, as well as financial support to keep the conflict going, despite the nuclear dangers that are emerging, stresses Kanwal Sibal.
International Affairs
Indian Atrocities and Repercussion for Mental Health in the Kashmir Valley
Any solution for Kashmir?
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The people of Kashmir have endured a protracted, unreported conflict on a global scale. Following what the Kashmiri people claimed was a rigged local election that denied them a say in the Indian democratic process, the conflict turned toward armed insurgency in 1989. As a result, in the decade that followed the insurgency, more than half of the people in Jammu and Kashmir were the targets of or witnessed violent government crackdowns, public explosions, and cross-firing between military personnel and armed rebels. With the worst effects of conflict and violence affecting physical and mental health, the safety and freedom of the Kashmiri population were seriously threatened by the strong military presence.
Before India’s revocation of regional autonomy, the mental health of Kashmiris was already thought to be in crisis, has worsened. A significant social upheaval resulted from the abrogation of Article 370, which recognized Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) special status and granted the region semiautonomous rights, in August 2019. The area, known as the most militarized in the world, received over 900,000 Indian army personnel. All forms of communication and internet access were suspended, a strict curfew was imposed, and roads were blocked. Thousands of Kashmiris were detained; some have since been released, but a large number is still behind bars.
Psychiatric professionals assert that the effects of such actions by Indian forces on Kashmiri’s mental health are undeniable. According to a 2015 study conducted (by MSF) and the Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences Srinagar (IMHANS) 1.6 million adults displayed significant symptoms of depression, one million of anxiety, and 19 percent showed signs of PTSD respectively. A startling 93 percent of Kashmiris had suffered trauma because of the conflict.
As a result, COVID-19 is still having a devastating impact on Kashmir, with over 317,000 cases and 4,343 fatalities reported by early July 2021 in an area with about 13 million residents. Travel restrictions and protracted curfews made it difficult for people to get access to healthcare. Elderly patients and women were unable to access telemedicine, emergency helplines, or the electronic-based government-funded insurance program due to a lack of internet and other communication services. The psychiatrists claimed that the revocation of Article 370 in August halted advancements in the treatment of mental illness. Patients with pre-existing depression in remission experienced a recurrence of symptoms following the episode of article 370’s abrogation.
Besides adult, mental health one cannot ignore the impact of violence and war on child psychology. Children’s well-being is severely impacted by conflicts everywhere in the world. They continue to be subjected to severe abuse and violence. Millions of children’s lives are at risk as a result of atrocities being committed by violent criminals while they go unpunished. Such an environment has a significant effect and molds attitudes toward life. Children in Kashmir have also experienced such abuses directly. Their physical and mental health is impacted by the bombing of their schools and homes as well as the torture and murder of their families.
The presence of Indian occupation forces in Kashmir has severely impacted the children there, obstructing their development and having a profound impact on their lives as a whole. Their values have been severely hampered by social structural changes. Their sense of security and tranquility has completely disappeared over time. In the decade that followed the armed insurgency, a generation of young people emerged who decided to protest peacefully against what they perceived to be the military occupation of Kashmir. However, they encountered the same level of brutality from the Indian military as the rebels before them.
The valley has long faced a deep-rooted sociopolitical issue, resulting in current public health issues in Kashmir. Local and international organizations have criticized the Indian government for violating numerous human rights through its repressive administration of Kashmir. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights called attention to widespread torture and human rights abuses committed against civilians by Indian armed forces.
In order to effectively address the political, social, economic, and public health issues Kashmir is currently experiencing, a comprehensive response is urgently required. To ensure that Kashmiris do not experience the same nightmare they did because of the communications blackout in 2019 and throughout, the Indian government has a duty under international human rights law to protect the safety and health of the region’s residents.
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A Kashmiri Pandit, Puran Krishan, was shot dead in south Kashmir’s Shopian district on November 6, 2022. he is the third person from the Pundit community to be killed in Kashmir(Kashmiri Pandit shot dead in Shopian, Hindustan Times Oct 16, 2022.The community believes that the unabated third killing in succession exposes the BJP government’s myth of “normalcy” in the disputed state. Civilian killings in Kashmir contradict the narrative of normalcy. Residents blame it on the BJP’s “militaristic policy” to change Kashmir demography by issuing domicile certificates to non-Kashmiri residents.
The Frontline questioned: Are the attacks on Pandits a fallout of New Delhi’s iron-fisted bureaucratic control of Jammu and Kashmir, marked by the arbitrary use of anti-terror laws against people with dissenting viewpoints, including journalists, and the summary incarceration of Hurriyat and religious leaders? Are they a backlash to the government’s perceived plan to reorient the region’s demographics? Can economic incentives and doles aimed at boosting Jammu and Kashmir’s ramshackle economy be a panacea for a layered political conflict? What are the perceptions, anxieties, and political reflections of Kashmir’s Muslim majority? (The Frontline, Nov 03, 2022).
Perhaps irked by the volatile situation in the occupied Kashmir, India’s Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (November 5, 2022) hinted at the possibility of the Centre considering restoring state status to the disputed Jammu and Kashmir. She dropped the hint while talking about the distribution of funds to the states by the Centre as per the recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission. Sitharaman was delivering a lecture on “Cooperative Federalism: The Path Towards Atma Nirbhar Bharat ” organised here by Bharatiya Vichara Kendram in memory of Sangh idealogue P Parameshwaran (Will J&K’s statehood be restored? Here’s what FM Nirmala Sitharaman said, India Today, Nov 6, 2022).
NGOs’ efforts to get dialogue kick-started
Several NGOs including Institute of International Relations (KIIR), Islamabad/Muzaffarabad advocate dialogue as the only possible way out of the Kashmir tangle. They have been highlighting the miserable life in the occupied Kashmir. The Institute has been contributing to developing durable relationship with individuals, interest groups and institutions in South Asia and around the world working towards conflict resolution and human rights.
In its efforts for global peace and resolution of Kashmir conflict KIIR has engaged policy makers and policy implementers: members of parliament, political activists, lawyers, journalists, academics and social activists.
Plebiscite and other solutions
Inability to hold a plebiscite led to academic discussion on alternative solutions. Pakistan view is India negated the cardinal principle in inter-state relations, that is, pacta sunt servanda `treaties are to be observed’ and are binding upon signatories. Till 1954, India kept saying that it was committing to holding a plebiscite. Now it says the United Nations are mediatory in nature. And, as such, not of binding nature. India pleads the United Nations’ resolutions have become antiquated: clasula rebus sic stantibus (things as they stand, or fundamental change of circumstances. In the case of a ‘fundamental change of circumstances’, that existed when a treaty was concluded, a party to that treaty may invoke this fact as a ground for termination or suspending operation of a treaty.
India’s foreign secretary JN Dixit’s view
As quoted in Victoria Schofield’s book Kashmir in the Crossfire, JN Dixit says ‘it is no use splitting legal hair. Everybody who has a sense of history knows that legality only has relevance up to the threshold of transcending political realities. And especially in inter-state relations… so to quibble about points of law and hope that by proving a legal point you can reverse the process of history is living in a somewhat contrived utopia. It won’t work.’
A plethora of solutions
Academic solutions abound: (a) Freezing the Territorial Status Quo. This solution offers the Kashmiris south of the LoC both Kashmiri ID cards and Indian passports. Likewise, it offers those on the north of the LoC, Kashmiri ID cards and Pakistani passports (Marc Weller. and Staffan Wolff (eds.), Autonomy, Self-Governance and Conflict Resolution, New York, Routledge Taylor and Francis Group, 2005, pp. 41,42). (b) Andorra Model: Andorra was a unique co-principality- (without any arbitrator), ruled by the French chief of state and the Spanish bishop of Urgel for 715 years. Through a constitution, enacted in 1993, the government was transformed into a parliamentary democracy with both French and Spanish heads of states jointly wielding executive powers (as well as defence) as co-principis. When this solution was first proposed by Hurriyat Conference (in 1974), President Musharraf supported it. However, all sections of the Indian media termed this solution ‘Pandora’s box’. (c) Sweden-Finland Aland-Island Model: Swedish nationals in Finland controlled the Island. They wanted to unite it with Sweden. But, Finland did not allow them to do so. With League of Nations appointed as an arbitrator in 1921, the island was given the status of an autonomous territory. Finland retains nominal sovereignty over the island with obligation to ensure linguistic rights (Swedish language) as well as culture and heritage of Aland residents. The island enjoys a neutral and demilitarised status with its own flag, postage stamps and police force. On December 31, 1994, Aland joined the European Union voluntarily. Aland is a self-governing entity, created without use of force, catering for conflicting interests of rival communities. (d) Italy-Austria South Tyrol Model: South Tyrol was part of Austria. It was inhabited by three linguistic groups (70% Germans, 26% Italians, and 4% Ladin). It was annexed by Italy in 1919. The German majority rebelled against Italianisation. An agreement between Austria and Italy provided an autonomy framework, vouchsafed by Paris Peace Agreement, 1946 (also known as Gruber Degasperi Agreement). Under the South Tyrol Package of 1969, Austria exercised a mandatory protective function vis-à-vis Italy for the Austrian and Ladin minorities in South Tyrol. The package was meant to pave the way for peaceful co-existence of German- and Ladin-speaking communities of South Tyrol, particularly in the multi-ethnic province of Bolzano. The package collapsed and gave way to a settlement in 1992 with the United Nations as the arbitrator. The revised package still recognizes Italian sovereignty but allows greater autonomy of legislation and administration, recognition of cultural diversity, minority vote on issues of fundamental importance, and proportional ethnic representation. (e) National Conference Autonomy Formula (2001): The formula envisages return to 1953 position, abrogation of all central laws imposed on the state, and an informal co-federal relationship between the parts of Kashmir. (f) Chenab Formula: According to this formula the River Chenab will form the separation line between free (Azad) and occupied parts of Kashmir. Some writers have discussed the Indus-basin-based formula, akin to it. (g) Kashmir-Study-Group Formula: It envisages division of the state into two self-governing entities, enjoying free access to one another. The entities would have their own democratic constitutions, citizenship, flag, and legislature (sans defence matters jurisdiction). Defence would be the joint responsibility of India and Pakistan. (h) Other solutions like Sami parliamentary model, Italy-Yugoslavia Trieste model, Basque leader Jose Ibarretxe ideas, and Caledonia island (discovered in 1774), sovereignty sharing Noumea agreement (1999).
UN rep Dixit’s Plan
Dixon talked with all stakeholders and came up with a planLa) Ladakh should be awarded to India. (b) Azad Kashmir (including Gilgit & Baltistan) should remain with Pakistan. (c) Whole Kashmir valley should have a plebiscite with no option to independence (and it might have gone to Pakistan). (d) Jammu should be divided on religious basis. The river Chenab should be the dividing line. Northern Jammu (Muslims dominated) should go to Pakistan and Hindu majority parts of Jammu to remain with India.
In short Muslim areas should have gone with Pakistan and Hindu-Buddhist majority areas should have remained with India. India rejected the Dixon plan. India never accepted the plan at heart.
AG Noorani says ‘The Dixon Plan (1950) is even today nostalgically cherished by the people of Kashmir as a viable solution of the Kashmir issue. Sir Owen Dixon, an Australian judge, in his capacity as representative for India and Pakistan, proposed this plan pursuant to the Security Council’s Resolution of March 14, 1950’.
The Kashmir Dispute 1947-2012 A.G. NOORANI, The Dixon Plan, The Frontline
Jagat S Mehta’s formula
Parvez Musharraf’s four-point formula appears to be a modification of Indian foreign Secretary, Jagat S. Mehta’s proposals. Mehta understood India’s abhorrence to the word ‘plebiscite’. So he presented some proposals to serve as requirements for evolving a solution after a period of ten years. His proposals are contained in his article “Resolving Kashmir in the International Context of the 1990s”.
Some points of his quasi-solution are: (a) Pacification of the valley until a political solution is reached. (b) Conversion of the Loc into “a soft border permitting free movement and facilitating free exchanges…” (c) Immediate demilitarization of the Loc to a depth of five to ten miles with agreed methods of verifying compliance. (d) Final settlement of the dispute between India and Pakistan can be suspended (kept in a “cold freeze”) for an agreed period. Voracious readers may refer for detail to Robert G Wirsing, India, Pakistan and the Kashmir Dispute (1994, St Martin’s Press, New York pp. 225-228).
Concluding thought
Kashmir is a nuclear tinderbox. The two neighbours bury the hatchet and talk eyeball-to-eyeball about it.
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With the assistance of the United States, a new interim government took office after the Taliban’s rule. Afghanistan was a collapsed state that wanted to be brought back to life. Afghanistan received billions of dollars in funding from the international community to help reconstruct the country. According to trading economics (2021), Afghanistan received three times the amount of assistance provided to Europe in the aftermath of WWII. However, Afghanistan has been collecting funding from foreign countries for almost two decades. But in the post-Karzai period, Afghanistan has gone through a significant period of transformation over the last seven years, with the installation of a new government in 2014. Ever since the country’s poverty has risen dramatically, and the percentage of displaced people has more than increased. In 2020, concern about the country’s international trajectory and trust in the government plummeted to its lowest rate in a decade (Singh, 2020). It suggests that the country has been in a very unbalanced situation, and corruption has been one of the reasons behind Afghanistan not developing. The main question that stands is to what extent have the past 20 years of corruption affected Afghanistan in terms of reconciliation, reconstruction, and development? Therefore, this paper will discuss the impact of the past 20 years of corruption on reconciliation, rebuilding, and Afghanistan state development. What would have happened to the country’s economy if there had been no corruption, and what would be the best way to combat corruption?
Corruption is widespread in Afghanistan, and that has infiltrated all levels of government, making it difficult for the country to ensure order for its people and provide public goods and services. Patronage politics and fraud have become accepted parts of everyday life, and corruption is becoming deeply ingrained in societal activities. Despite the National Unity Government’s (NUG) stated goal of combating corruption, the formation of numerous anti-corruption agencies, and President Ghani’s participation in broader policy implementation, it remains (Gramer, 2021). This trend has affected foreign aid as well. Indeed, the situation is thought to have been compounded by a huge increase in funds and inadequate regulation of contracting and recruitment due to international involvement. To address this, development partners in Afghanistan have been advised to obtain a better understanding of the nature and range of fraud or corruption, avoid short-term relations between pernicious parties, recognize the amount of support that can be provided by governmental institutions, better reflect their programs with spending priorities, and strong relationships with one another, democratic institutions, and the Afghan government.
Corruption and bribery have had a major impact on the country’s development over the last 20 years. As previously stated, the country has received billions of dollars in aid from foreign countries and international organizations for rehabilitation, peace, and growth since the Taliban’s defeat. However, due to greed and dishonesty in terms of its use, it was all lost and gone. External interference from various countries in investigating corruption in the Afghan Police Force was one of the major causes of corruption, according to Singh (2020). Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s former president, discussed this in an interview with Tolo News after his term ended. During his interview, he said that the US government was not only responsible for the fighting, but also the corruption. Especially in the Afghan police forces, where the appointment of a deputy officer or chief officer for an opposing district in major provinces is not dependent on merit, but rather on the amount of money available for the job. The aim is to make as much money as possible from their role, which involves smuggling, illicit drug dealing, and other illegal activities (Bak et al, 2019). Another factor contributing to Afghanistan’s lack of reconciliation and reconstruction has been foreign interference in the country’s political and ethnic affairs (Stanford, 2021). This has resulted in the formation of several militant organizations in Afghanistan, where they are intervening in the provision of funding and other items to those groups and their leaders.
The reasons listed at the top have had a significant impact on the country’s rehabilitation over the last 20 years. According to a survey by Trading Economics, the country is currently ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ranking 169th (2021). To begin with, it has had a significant impact on the country’s reconstruction. Afghanistan could have been Asia’s most industrialized nation if that funding had not been wasted. Second, it affected the country’s reconciliation (swap-berlin, 2021). Armed gangs are also being prepared and given arms to create instability. The third and most significant was the growth of the country’s institutions, as institution-building is the most important aspect of a country’s state-building (Dobbins et al, 2008). However, owing to the high level of corruption that existed, it was ineffective. If corruption had not existed in Afghanistan in previous years, it may have had a significant effect on the lives of these impoverished people, and the country would not have such a high poverty rate.
In conclusion, we could say that corruption has been one of the main aspects of Afghanistan’s instability and lack of development over the past 20 years. In Afghanistan, corruption, politics, and bribery have been known aspects of daily life. Over the last 20 years, corruption and bribery have had a significant effect on the country’s growth. The process of reconstruction and rehabilitation in Afghanistan is exacerbated by foreign intervention in political and ethnic relations. As a result, many insurgent organizations have formed in Afghanistan, which are interfering in the distribution of funding and other things to those organizations and their members. The purpose is to profit as much as possible from their positions, which entails illegal drug trafficking and other illegal activities. Afghanistan is one of the world’s most corrupt countries. Afghanistan is currently ranked 169th among the world’s most corrupt nations. If money had not been stolen, Afghanistan might have been Asia’s most developed country. To put an end to corruption in Afghanistan, restructuring of government management and financial accounting is needed. To stop the cycle of protection or immunity against punishment or loss, strong law enforcement is required. Information transparency and accountability must be encouraged. The avoidance of corruption and the elimination of budget breaches have both benefited from community monitoring initiatives.
Public administration and financial accounting must be restructured: Financial accounting changes and enhancing the position of analytics in a form had a significant impact on reducing bribery and reform efforts in several countries. This one change is the public transparency of budgetary records, which avoids financial waste and misallocation.
Put an end to impunity: Strong law enforcement is required to ensure that the corrupt are disciplined and to break the habit of immunity, or immunity from penalty or failure. A robust regulatory structure, law enforcement departments, and an impartial and active judicial system all contribute to successful enforcement strategies. Policies like the corrupt movement will help society sustain the system.
Transparency and openness to data should be promoted: States that have been active in combating corruption have a broad history of government accountability, press freedom, integrity, and access to the media (Sullivian& Forsberg,2014). Access to data improves the accessibility of governmental agencies while also increasing citizens’ interest in society.
People must be motivated: A durable solution to building shared confidence among people and the government would be to increase people’s appetite for anti-corruption and encourage them to keep the government accountable. Community surveillance programs, for instance, have aided in the prevention of misconduct, the reduction of budget leaks, and the improvement of the amount and ability of the government in some situations.
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