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Free agency has not been kind to the Jets in recent years. The team’s struggles in free agency are probably not as big of a factor in the team’s failures as the Draft, but failed signings have nonetheless had a major negative impact.
This led me to wonder whether there have been any consistent themes in the signings that did not work out (and those that did).
I decided to go back a decade and explore every major Jets free agent signing. I then categorized each as either a success or a failure.
How did I distinguish between a major signing and a minor signing? What made a success or a failure?
In all honestly it was highly subjective. I categorized a signing as major if there was a reasonable chance at the time the player was going to play a major role on the team.
For success I tried to determine whether the player had performed that role well for at least half of the term of his contract.
It is more art than science. Even though Darrelle Revis made a Pro Bowl in 2015, and Morris Claiborne never approached that level, I think Claiborne performed far better relative to expecations and salary.
Avery Williamson probably fell short of my criteria, but there were extenuating circumstances. I thought he played well enough to be considered a success. CJ Mosley, on the other hand, missed two full seasons and didn’t play at a top level in the one season he did play.
Some might argue Josh McCown’s 2017 season was a pleasant surprise as he had the best season of his career. Can I really count the starting quarterback of a 5 win team a success just because he threw 17 touchdown passes, though?
You might disagree with one or two of my conclusions on a player. Some are debatable. You might think one player I included wasn’t significant enough to count. You might think I left out a player of significance.
I can appreciate these arguments, but with over 50 players analyzed it is unlikely that a change to one or two would make an appreciable difference in the results.
Note that I also created a special category for Carl Lawson and Corey Davis. While both had unsuccessful first seasons, there is a realistic chance they could bounce back from injury and reverse the current narrative on themselves.
I also broke the players down by position.
Based on the way the league evaluates and pays talent, I deem quarterback, outside wide receiver, tackle, edge rusher, and outside cornerback as the premium positions.
Running back, slot receiver, tight end, guard, center, interior defensive lineman, linebacker, slot cornerback, and safety are the non-premium positions.
I also avoided using raw numbers when examining contracts. Since the cap changes each year, the market value of players also change. Giving somebody $5 million in 2012 when the salary cap was $120.6 million was different from giving somebody $5 million in 2020 when the cap was $198.2 million.
Instead I valued contacts based on the salary cap that year. I used the average annual value of a contract as a percentage of the salary cap and the total guaranteed money in a deal as a percentage of the salary cap in the year deals were signed.
I only used players who were signed from other teams and the initial contract they signed. That’s the focus. If a player was already on the Jets and re-signed, he didn’t count. If a player signed a one year deal from another team and re-signed with the Jets the next season, only the one year deal was examined. Players acquired in trades didn’t count either.
I wanted to focus on players the Jets outbid other teams financially to land. These are players they couldn’t be sure would fit the system and the locker room. How much did they bid, and were the deals worth it?
Here were the players I examined.
Successful signings: LaRon Landry, Yeremiah Bell
Unsuccessful signing: Chaz Schilens
Successful signings: Willie Colon, Dawan Landry
Unsuccessful signings: Mike Goodson, Antwan Barnes, Antonio “Garayed” Garay, Kellen Winslow II
Successful signing: Eric Decker
Unsuccessful signings: Michael Vick, Breno Giacomini, Chris Johnson, Dimitri Patterson, Jason Babin
Successful signing: James Carpenter
Unsuccessful signings: Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, Marcus Gilchrist, Kellen Davis
Successful signing: Steve McLendon
Unsuccessful signing: Matt Forte
Successful signings: Kelvin Beachum, Morris Claiborne
Unsuccessful signing: Josh McCown
Successful signing: Avery Williamson
Unsuccessful signings: Trumaine Johnson, Spencer Long, Terrelle Pryor, Isaiah Crowell
Successful signings: Jamison Crowder, Brian Poole
Unsuccessful signings: Le’Veon Bell, CJ Mosley, Ryan Kalil
Successful signings: Connor McGovern, George Fant
Unsuccessful signings: Breshad Perriman, Pierre Desir, Greg Van Roten, Frank Gore
Successful signing: Tevin Coleman
Unsuccessful signings: Keelan Cole, Jarrad Davis, Sheldon Rankins, Lamarcus Joyner, Tyler Kroft, Vinny Curry
Currently unsuccessful signings that are too early to write off: Carl Lawson, Corey Davis
What are some of the common threads?
